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General Election 2017 Polling Update - 5 May

5 May 2017

The two online polls released yesterday continue to point to a significant margin for the Conservatives, with Kantar's recent poll indicating a two-point bump for the Conservatives compared to last week, while Labour remains unchanged.

Meanwhile, the latest YouGov poll also points to a swing towards the Conservatives, with a four percentage point increase in support for them and a two percentage reduction in support for Labour. However, its poll still suggests a slightly smaller margin between the parties than Kantar.

While neither pollster indicates any significant changes in support for the smaller parties, it is interesting to note that YouGov's poll has the smaller parties polling much worse and suggests Labour is rather more popular.

It is tempting to infer something from the different fieldwork dates for the two polls, with YouGov completing its poll a day later than Kantar on the day before the local elections. However, given that the difference in the results of the two pollsters was largely the same last week, it is more likely to be a result of different methods used by the two pollsters.

In other polling news, the Financial Times reports on research conducted by the paper alongside Electoral Calculus and ICM Research suggesting that party loyalty is increasingly overridden by concerns over Brexit. This most affects the Labour Party, with one fifth of poll respondents who backed Labour at the last General Election indicating that they will vote differently this time around.

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Madhav Bakshi, Political Analyst
Madhav Bakshi
Political Analyst

Madhav Bakshi is a Political Analyst within DeHavilland’s Editorial Team and leads on Energy policy. He is a graduate of King’s College London, where he studied International Politics.